Miami at New York

Miami arrives at Citi Field having gone 8-18 on the road this season, the second-worst away record in the NL, and that's the right place to start understanding this number. Janson Junk is 3-5 with a 4.80 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP — no deception in those numbers, no strand rate running hot, his 4.07 FIP says the surface results are real. Against a Mets lineup anchored by Juan Soto hitting .300 with a .974 OPS, ranked third in the league, this matchup is steep. Nolan McLean has taken a beating his last two outings — 16 runs allowed in nine innings, ERA spiked from 2.92 to 4.40 — but his 1.09 WHIP and 75 strikeouts rank eighth in baseball, and a 2.65 FIP through his first nine starts tells you the profile underneath is intact. The market is pricing the blip, not the body of work. New York has won three straight and holds home field at a slight favorite price that understates the pitching gap. The value is on the Mets based on a distressed starter matchup and Miami's historically poor road form. Take the Mets