Miami at New York

Florida is 12-7 on the road this season (best in the Majors) while the Mets have won just eight of 20 at home. Jon Niese has been average for the Mets and he's lost four of six starts. Ricky Nolasco is 3-0, posting a 3.02 ERA. In his last three starts, he's gone 6.8 innings on average, allowing just 6 earned runs and notching 22 Ks. The Marlins are 20-10 since last season on the road vs. NL teams that score under 4.4 runs per game. In their last 16 on the road with Nolasco on the mound, the Marlins are 14-2 vs. losing teams! When working with 5-6 days rest, Nolasco is 12-1 on the road the past three seasons. I like the Marlins in this one.