Miami at Milwaukee

Sandy Alcantara enters tonight the best version of himself in years, an eight-inning, one-run final look at the Athletics before the break, capping a June where he went 6-0 and dropped his ERA into respectable territory for the first time all season. That's the pitcher Milwaukee gets tonight, not the one who opened 2026 still searching for his release point. The Marlins have dropped three straight, but that skid says more about a taxed lineup running into playoff-caliber arms than it does about where this team sits, four games back of a wild-card spot with a rotation rounding into form at the right time. Logan Henderson gives the Brewers a quality arm of his own, a 3.18 ERA since coming back from a back injury, but he's still on a short leash in just his sixth start back. Milwaukee owns the better record, and the better home mark, and the price reflects it, but this number clears at a shade under 42%, well within reach for a pitcher throwing like Alcantara is right now. Back the Marlins with the plus money tonight.