Miami at Atlanta

Atlanta has reeled off six straight, and Bryce Elder starts today. Over his last five starts, he has been touched for multiple runs three times, including a four-inning, five-run meltdown against San Francisco in late June, and his 3.84 ERA sits ahead of Eury Pérez's mark by less than half a run even with Pérez sitting on two fewer wins. That win total says nothing about how Pérez has actually pitched: across his last three outings, he has allowed four earned runs total, working at least six innings every time out. Atlanta's offense carried the load again in that opener, and a Miami lineup hitting .250 as a team has enough contact in it to turn one of Elder's shaky middle innings into a problem tonight. The gap between these two arms is thinner than the gap in the price. Back the Marlins.