Los Angeles at Tampa Bay

Reid Detmers gets the ball for Los Angeles today against Drew Rasmussen in Game 3 of this series at Tropicana Field. The Angels just strung together back-to-back series wins for the first time all season, showing real signs of life heading into this one. Rasmussen has been quietly elite — a 2.78 ERA and 0.98 WHIP — and this Angels lineup batting .228/.312/.381 is a tough ask for run production. The problem is that the market is pricing this as a blowout spot and overreacting to Tampa’s home dominance. Detmers works a 94 mph four-seamer at heavy usage with a slider producing a 32.1% whiff rate and a curveball whiffing at 37.0% — the stuff is legitimate, and he’s capable of keeping the Rays contained long enough to steal a game. The Angels own a 22-35 ATS record this season, but underdog value at this price accounts for that. The market is overweighting Tampa’s home record and underweighting the Angels’ recent momentum and Detmers’ strikeout ability. The value is on the Angels at this number in a potential trap spot for a Rays club that could be looking ahead. Take the Angels.