Los Angeles at Los Angeles

Roki Sasaki has been one of the better pitching stories in baseball over the last three weeks — four earned runs across more than 17 innings in his last three starts — and the Dodgers are priced as a significant favorite tonight on the strength of that recent run. The full-season read undercuts the price: a 4.59 ERA through ten starts and a 4-6 team record in those games. The market has paid full price for a hot streak without accounting for what the body of work as a whole shows. Paying significant chalk for a pitcher who carries such a bloated ERA doesn't add up. Take the Angels.