Las Vegas at Minnesota

Minnesota's rotation problems go deeper than one bad night. The Twins carry the 26th-ranked team ERA in baseball, a bloated 4.77 mark, and Zebby Matthews takes the mound tonight with his own ERA sitting at 5.40 in his first extended big-league look this season. Jacob Lopez gets the ball for the Athletics, and while his season line isn't pretty either, his last time out was his cleanest of the stretch, two earned runs allowed across four-plus innings against Washington. My mathematical model likes Oakland by a real margin here, and there's genuine money finding the Athletics' side of this game today, outweighing the ticket count by a wide margin. Oakland only needs to win a bit more than four times in ten to make this price pay, and a Minnesota staff bleeding runs at this rate gives that number a real chance to clear. Take the Athletics tonight.