Las Vegas at Detroit

Troy Melton's ERA looks like a rotation ace's, but his walk totals and the underlying contact data haven't matched that number all month, the kind of gap that tends to catch up to a young starter as the league sees him a second and third time. Detroit is 41-50 on the year, the same record the Athletics carry, and a shiny month from Melton hasn't been enough to lift a lineup that still finds itself in low-scoring grinds more often than not. Jeffrey Springs has had a rough season by any measure, but the A's bats have enough pop to make a command-shaky arm work for every out, and if Melton's walk rate shows up the way it has recently, Detroit's bullpen is what actually decides this game. The Athletics don't need to be the better team tonight. They need one inning where Melton loses the zone and a Tigers pen that hasn't been airtight to hold a one or two-run lead. At this price, that's a live number. Take the A's to win.