Las Vegas at Boston

We took Boston's number Saturday afternoon, and the Athletics answered right back, riding two solo homers and two two-run doubles to a 7-3 win that snapped their own nine-game skid. That result matters here, because the Red Sox still haven't named a starter for today's series finale, a blank spot in the equation that the market is pricing over. J.T. Ginn takes the ball for the Athletics instead, and the version of him over the last two months has been stingy: three earned runs or fewer in seven of his last eight starts. My mathematical model puts this one closer to 36-64, a tighter split than the price on the board reflects. The Athletics fit their own pattern today too, a big underdog off a win, coming off a game where they were also priced as a big underdog. Boston remains one of the better clubs in the league, but Saturday is proof the number can move fast against a team that's earned every bit of its price. The market has mispriced this one. At these odds, the Athletics are the play this afternoon.