Las Vegas at Baltimore

On the surface, it appears the A's have a pitching advantage with Aaron Civale (3-1 and a 2.95 ERA) going against Baltimore's Shane Baz (1-3, 4.99 ERA). But on closer inspection, that is misleading. Baz has pitched better than his ERA would indicate, according to various metrics. Baez is only giving up 0.9 home runs per nine innings and is capable of pitching a gem. Civale, a journeyman bottom-of-the-rotation type starter, has an expected ERA of 4.22 with an exceptionally high strand rate. If you go by whiff and hard hit rate, then Civale ranks among the bottom 12 percent of pitchers. The Orioles are averaging 5.5 runs per game in their last four games. Pete Alonzo has two homers and seven RBI's during this span. The A's are in the bottom 10 in road scoring. Take the Orioles.