Kansas City at Boston

The Royals average 4.5 runs per game and Boston 5.1 per game. While Bruce Chen has only pitched 9.3 innings, he's done very will in his limited showings, posting a 2.89 ERA. John Lester has pitched 66 innings, going 5-2 in his 10 games, with a stellar 3.15 ERA thus far. He's been heating up even more lately having put up a 2.05 ERA in his last three starts. When coming off a game in which he gave up 1 or less earned run as he is here, Lester is 14-4 UNDER over the past two seasons. When facing a starter with an ERA of 4.00 or better this season, the Royals are 10-2 UNDER. I look for a low-scoring game here.