Houston at Tampa Bay

Houston sits well behind Tampa Bay in the loss column, and after dropping the first two of this series, the Astros are the underdog for the finale — but the pitching matchup tells a different story than the records do. Hayden Wesneski takes the mound for Houston with a 3.35 ERA and just one loss all season, and he draws a Rays lineup that hasn't seen him yet this year. Freddy Peralta goes for Tampa Bay carrying a 4.82 ERA, a number that's climbed even as his record has stayed respectable behind a lineup that's scored plenty of runs for him. The Rays have the better overall record and just took the first two of this set, but Sunday's starter isn't the same caliber that's carried them there, and Houston's arm has been one of its most reliable all year. Getting a price on the Astros with the sharper starter on the mound is the kind of value I want on a getaway day. I'm on Houston today.