Houston at New York

New York has lost three in a row and five of its last six, capped by a stretch against Milwaukee that got out of hand fast: an 8-1 final followed by an 8-2 final that buried the Mets' bullpen along with the scoreboard. Houston arrives having just taken two of three from the Yankees on the road, punctuated by a 5-1 win last time out that Hunter Brown mostly cruised through. This is a fresh series and a fresh number, and the Astros opening a new set as a road favorite off a win is precisely the situational spot my system flags year after year: teams that travel well, keep winning series, and run into an opponent that's already shown it can't hold a lead against anybody right now. Christian Scott takes the ball for the Mets with a respectable ERA on paper, but New York's issue hasn't been one bad start; it's an offense and bullpen that have completely come apart over the last week. Houston doesn't need a dominant Hunter Brown outing to win this one. It needs the Mets to keep being the Mets. Take Houston on the moneyline tonight.