Houston at Los Angeles

Houston is on a 27-11 run on the road. In their last eight times as an underdog, the Astros won seven of them. Framber Valdez (2.60 ERA) has been strong with 45 Ks in 45 innings and only 10 walks. This is his first start against division rival Los Angeles in 2023. Last year, Valdez beat the Angeles in three of four starts, 3-1, 3-2, and 4-2, in a season where he went 10-2 away from home with a 2.27 ERA. Houston is also 63-26 versus winning teams and a great bounce-back squad, 46-19 following a loss. Los Angeles relies on the long ball, ranked just 29th in steals, and Valdez has allowed just four homers while Houston's bullpen is sixth in ERA (3.33). L.A. has lost two of three, getting thumped at home by Texas as a favorite, losing 10-1 and 16-8. Los Angeles is on a 6-4 run at home with three one-run victories. The Angels are also 27-56 against Houston, including 6-13 at home. Back the defending champs to win the game or lose by one run. Play Houston on the run line.