Detroit at Tampa Bay

While Justin Verlander has to be respected, neither he nor his Tigers teammates have earned enough respect to be even-up vs. the Rays at home. The Rays are king of the home field as they are 70-30 in their last 100 here against a team with a losing road record. While the Tigers have been great at home, they have been just 27-39 on the road, and have won just six of their last 21 on the highway. The Rays have even ramped-it-up higher at home against a right-hand starter as they are now 73-26 in their last 99 here against a righty. When they wheel out Niemann to start at home, they have won their last seven as a home chalk and 12 of his last 15 as a favorite overall. The Tigers are just 5-16 in their last 21 on field turf, and it will take more than Verlander to win this one. I’m going with the Rays here.