Detroit at Tampa Bay

Griffin Jax has been pitching well in his transition to the Tampa Bay rotation — a 1.71 ERA over his first 21 innings as a starter, and the underlying numbers that strip out luck suggest it's mostly legitimate. But 21 innings is a thin slice of evidence, and the market is pricing this matchup as if Jax is an established ace rather than a career reliever who is three weeks into a new role. His ERA as a starter in the majors before this stretch? North of six. Sustained success starting is a very different animal than getting hitters out in short stints out of the bullpen, and the book on him simply isn't written yet. Detroit counters with Ty Madden returning from the injured list, and pitchers are usually sharp in their first start back from rest. The Tigers lineup has genuine pop — Spencer Torkelson is one of the better pure power hitters in the league, Munetaka Murakami ranks sixth in the majors in slugging percentage, and Tropicana Field is one of the friendliest ballparks in baseball for right-handed home run hitters. The market is over-trusting a small sample on a pitcher making a role transition, and giving away a Tigers club at a significant underdog price with real upside in that lineup. Take the Tigers.