Detroit at San Francisco

Detroit dealt Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize at the deadline, but Keider Montero remains one of the more underrated arms left in this rotation, an 8-6 record with a 3.17 ERA that's quietly outperformed most of what's still on this staff. My mathematical model projections lean toward Detroit by 16 percentage points tonight, and the matchup backs it up: San Francisco hasn't named a starter, leaving Montero to work against a club sitting 19 games under .500 at 48-67. We faded Detroit on Tuesday against Seattle, and it blew up on us, an 8-0 shutout that showed this rotation still has enough even without its two best arms. Detroit sits 4.5 games back in the division and 1.5 out of a wild-card spot, playing games that matter every night from here out, while San Francisco is playing out a lost season with a staff that can't match that urgency. Take Detroit on the moneyline tonight.