Detroit at Las Vegas

We were in Detroit against Baltimore on Wednesday, and it got away late, an eight-run bullpen collapse in a game Tarik Skubal had built for the Tigers to win. Detroit's own record sits below .500 at 51-58, which isn't the résumé of a heavy favorite on paper, but the reason tonight is simple: Casey Mize is pitching like a different pitcher than his teammates. He's sitting on a 2.70 ERA and 0.99 WHIP, and he draws an Athletics club that's lost its way to a 45-64 record and gone 21-33 at home. Jeffrey Springs has been at the center of that collapse, with a 6.23 ERA and 1.45 WHIP that have him at 3-10 on the season. My mathematical model projections favor Detroit by well over 20 percentage points, and the power gap backs it up — the Tigers have hit multiple home runs in 22 of their 31 wins this year, exactly the kind of night an Athletics staff allowing this much traffic can't survive. Mize gives Detroit the mound edge its overall record doesn't show. Take the Tigers tonight.