Detroit at Houston

Troy Melton has been one of the most effective pitchers in the American League over the past month. The 25-year-old right-hander went 3-0 with a 2.81 ERA across four starts since returning from the IL, reached eight innings in one of those outings, and controls games with efficiency — low pitch counts, clean first pitches, a bullpen that doesn't get worn down because he doesn't need it early. Kai-Wei Teng brings swing-and-miss ability: 20 strikeouts over his last three starts in the rotation. But he's walked 11 batters in those 16 innings, a liability Detroit's patient lineup knows how to exploit. Houston is 33-40, carrying a bottom-third bullpen. Melton versus Teng is a clear pitching edge in Detroit's favor, and the runline provides a comfortable cushion on top. Detroit wins on the runline tonight.