Detroit at Chicago

I had Detroit in this series yesterday, betting the Tigers to keep it within a run, and Chicago's bullpen slammed the door on that idea, winning by two to take the series lead. I'm not making that mistake again today. Detroit is mathematically eliminated from the postseason, while Chicago is still holding onto the final American League wild card spot, playing games right now that matter more than anything left on the Tigers' schedule. That gap in stakes is showing up on the mound too. Davis Martin has been outstanding across his last three starts, working into the sixth each time and allowing a total of two earned runs, while Troy Melton carries a shiny season ERA that's badly out of date, having been tagged for at least three earned runs in four of his last five outings and getting pulled after less than three innings his last time out. Detroit's pitching staff is also without Justin Verlander, Jack Flaherty and Reese Olson, and the bullpen is down a key late-inning arm in Kyle Finnegan too, which leaves a patchwork relief corps trying to protect a lead against a lineup that's already beaten this staff twice in three games. Chicago's own injuries are limited to bullpen depth and a backup catcher, nothing that touches the lineup that's produced those two wins. A White Sox team fighting for its playoff life, at home, against a beat-up roster that's already checked out of the standings, shouldn't need a walk-off to win this one. Take the White Sox to win on the runline as my MLB Game of the Month this afternoon.