Detroit at Chicago

Anthony Kay has allowed two earned runs or fewer in all five May starts, posting a 1.98 ERA on the strength of a sinker-slider-changeup mix rated 105 Stuff+ that has consistently generated weak contact and ground ball outs. Framber Valdez bounced back in his last outing with six innings of one-run ball on two hits, and his career ground ball identity limits extra-base damage when the sinker is working downhill. Detroit is 8-22 on the road — one of the AL’s worst marks — and their lineup consistently underperforms away from home, compressing the offensive ceiling against a lefty working soft contact. The only prior meeting between these clubs this season finished UNDER the total. Two soft-contact starters, a cold road offense, and a number already priced conservatively. I like the UNDER here.