Detroit at Baltimore

The Orioles’ Jeremy Guthrie enters this game with 15 losses and has a chance to become the first 20-game loser in MLB for many years. There is a reason. Guthrie isn't pitching as badly as his record would indicate with a 4.38 ERA on the season. Contrast that with Tigers starter Max Scherzer who enters with a similar 4.33 ERA on the season. The difference is that Scherzer is 11-7. If you took the logos off the hats, and didn't look at the win/loss records, you would say that this one is a dead heat. Yet Baltimore is not only at home, they are a dog too. A closer look reveals the Tigers are 4-11 in Scerzer's last 15 starts vs. a losing team and are 2-8 as a road favorite of -110 to -150. That's enough to say Baltimore is a live dog here, so play them here.