Colorado at St. Louis

Friday's opener between these two settled at 3-2, five total runs, and nothing about the arms tonight argues for more. Kyle Freeland's season line is ugly, an ERA pushing 6.81, but his last time out was the best start of his year: a complete game against Kansas City, one run over nine innings. Matthew Liberatore answered with six innings of one-hit, scoreless ball in Toronto, with seven strikeouts. Colorado's bats are the honest argument against this. The Rockies have scored more runs than St. Louis this season and slug considerably better, but those numbers carry half a season at altitude, and tonight they're on the road. That travel is its own signal: there's a durable UNDER pattern for this Colorado club once it leaves its home park, and it fires tonight. St. Louis is averaging under four and a half runs a night, 11th in the National League, with Jordan Walker's knee leaving him day-to-day. The number has come down from its opening, and the money behind that move isn't coming from the ticket count. The UNDER is my play tonight.