2008 Season MLB Baseball Past Picks
April 01, 2008
Colorado at St. Louis
Tuesday 04/01 08:15 PM Eastern
4 units on St. Louis -1.5 runs +182 (runline) (risk 4 to return 4) RESULT: LOSS
This may look like a pretty even pitching matchup, but we see it otherwise. Lohse has been awful for three years now and he isn't even supposed to be in the rotation - he made the team to pitch long relief. This was supposed to be an off day so he is filling a void and getting the ball for this one. Lohse has some ugly numbers. His last three years he has made 76 starts resulting in his team compiling a 23-53 record, or winning in just 30.2% of them. Last year he made 18 road starts and the opposing teams scored 114 runs, or 6.33 per game. The Cards may not have had a great deal of success last year, but when they win, you may as well take the value of the runline. They won 78 games last season and in 64 of those 78 wins, they won by two runs or more, or 82.1% of the time. At the same time the Rockies lost 43 games on the road last year, 27 of them by two or more runs or 62.8% of their losses. The numbers equate to more value on the runline than what is offered on the moneyline, so we'll back the highest opportunity here and take the Cards on the runline.