Colorado at San Francisco

San Francisco won the series opener 8-2 in this Bay Area set, then dropped Friday's game 4-3 when Colorado forced extra pressure on a shaky pitching staff. That staff gets no relief this afternoon. Kyle Freeland takes the mound sitting at 2-7 with a 7.46 ERA, and he's allowed at least four earned runs in five of his last six outings — a pattern, not a rough patch. Tyler Mahle isn't sharp either at 1-8 with a 5.70 ERA, but he gets to throw at home against a lineup that ranks near the bottom of the league, while Freeland walks into a Giants offense that's already scored on this same pitching staff twice this series. I caught Mahle for an easy piece of value against these Rockies less than a week ago in Denver, backing Colorado's bats to feast on him at altitude, and it cashed in a 7-6 shootout. Tonight, the roles flip: it's Freeland on the road, and he's been the worst arm of the two by a wide margin all season. San Francisco doesn't need to be a good team here; it just needs to avoid the pitcher who is currently posting one of the highest ERAs among qualified starters in the league. Sharp money has already lined up on the Giants' side today, and I'm following it. Side with San Francisco this afternoon.