Colorado at Chicago

Javier Assad has spent 2026 bouncing between the big league rotation and Triple-A Iowa, and the rotation he's returned to has been stripped of Matthew Boyd and Cade Horton due to injury. His ERA stands near five on the year, and while his WHIP is cleaner than that number suggests, he's also working in limited innings and still establishing whether he belongs as a number-five starter. Colorado sends Sean Sullivan to the mound for just his second major league start, a 23-year-old lefty built entirely on deception and command rather than velocity. The fastball sits 89, and he won't overpower anyone in the Cubs' lineup. This pick rests entirely on the price, not the prospect. Assad is beatable, Colorado's lineup has run-scoring capability at any altitude, and the Rockies only need to pull this off a little better than one time in three to show a profit at these odds. Wrigley narrows that gap on paper, but near two-to-one on a game between two flawed pitchers is a number worth a look. Take the Rockies and the fat number.