Colorado at Atlanta

Atlanta has won six in a row, the last one a tight 2-1 grind against this same Colorado club that came down to the final outs. I like the return matchup even more today. Tyler Mahle's won-loss record doesn't reflect the pitcher he's been lately: six innings and one run against the Mets, six-plus and two against Minnesota, five and one against Milwaukee, three straight outings of quality work while a shaky bullpen and a quiet offense have buried his record. Colorado counters with Mason Adams, a rookie making just his second big-league start after a solid debut, and rookies on the road against a lineup like Atlanta's are exactly the kind of unknown I want to bet against rather than with. The bigger factor is where this game is being played. Away from altitude, Colorado's offense loses the one thing that makes it dangerous, and this club is a well below-.500 team on the road with a three-game losing streak to show for it. Atlanta gets a rested bullpen behind a starter who's quietly dealing and an opponent that's a different, lesser team once it leaves Coors Field behind. Lay the price and take the Braves this afternoon for my MLB Game of the Month.