Cleveland at Cincinnati

We were on the Reds yesterday on both the moneyline and -1.5 runline and they came through. As they go for the sweep today, we like them again when they face Cliff Lee. Lee has been outstanding with a spotless 6-0 record and 0.67 ERA. He's gotten 11 strikeouts for every walk. So why do we like the Reds here? Well, they are at home and sport their own ace in Edinson Volquez who is 6-1 with a 1.12 ERA. He hasn't allowed more than one earned run in any start and has posted 57 strikeouts already. Backing up Volquez is a Reds pen that has posted a 2.88 ERA at home this season. And, of course, baseball is not just about pitching. The Indians are managing just 4.2 runs per game (3.9 per game on the road and 2.6 per game over their last seven). We'll take the hot home team with their ace on the mound in a live dog role.