Cleveland at Cincinnati

The Cincinnati Reds were a big surprise last year as they were much better than advertised. This year more of the same was expected, but the Reds continue to hover around the .500 mark halfway through the season. Homer Bailey takes the mound in this one and he certainly has been adequate with his 3.86 ERA. Bailey has come to the Reds’ rescue consistently as they are 13-3 when he serves his offerings as a home favorite, and a rock-solid 10-2 after a Reds loss. The Indians’ lack of punch on the road vs. right-handers has cause for concern, as they are 7-20 in their last 27. I like the Reds here quite a bit. I also like the UNDER. Bailey has worked four of five UNDERs when facing the Indians. In their last 19 games, Cleveland has managed to top the total just five times. These teams have combined for a 18-12 UNDER mark in interleague play this year, and over the past two seasons, the Indians are 63-43 UNDER after a win. Take Cincinnati and the UNDER here.