Cleveland at Tampa Bay

I had the UNDER in Game 1 last night, and it lost, with Cleveland winning 7-3. Tampa Bay led 2-0 through five innings, and its five relievers allowed five earned runs over three innings. Tampa Bay won 98 games to Cleveland’s 85, and Freddy Peralta has allowed three earned runs in 34 innings across his last six regular-season starts. Cleveland has Parker Messick, who is sixth in the majors in ERA at 2.56 with a 1.06 WHIP over 186.1 innings. He started twice against Tampa Bay this season, allowing one earned run each time while striking out 15 and walking two. Tampa Bay’s OPS is .752 against righties and .679 against lefties like Messick, ranking 25th in the league. Cleveland’s bullpen ERA is 3.54, sixth in the league, against 3.99 and 14th for Tampa Bay. At this price, Cleveland needs to win just over 44% of the time to show a profit. Cleveland is the right side on the moneyline tonight.