Cleveland at Philadelphia

The Guardians are 31-22 with a plus-24 run differential. The Phillies are 25-26 with a minus-25 run differential. That is a 49-run differential in favor of Cleveland. Yet the Guardians are huge underdogs to Philadelphia here. Not buying it. The oddsmaker is putting too much into the starting pitching matchup of Slade Cecconi versus Zack Wheeler. Cecconi is pitching much better this month than he did in April, going 3-0 with a 3.68 ERA in four May starts. Wheeler has been very good since returning from injury with a 1.99 ERA. But his strikeout rate per nine innings is his lowest in six seasons. Cleveland has the lower bullpen ERA at 3.80 compared to the Phillies' 4.04. The Guardians are not known for their offense. Yet they entered this series leading the American League in runs per game during this month, averaging more than five per game. The Phillies rank a disappointing 25th in batting average and OPS. Take the Guardians.