Cleveland at Milwaukee

Brandon Sproat has been one of the worst starters in the National League in 2026, with a 1-6 record and nearly a six ERA that undersells just how hard he's been hit. The underlying contact numbers are ugly — hard hit rate, exit velocity, opponents' on-base percentage — none of it is fluky. Hitters are genuinely teeing off on him, and Sproat has yet to demonstrate he can get through a lineup a second or third time without damage. Into that comes Gavin Williams, one of the quietly elite starters in the AL, 9-3 with a 3.20 ERA and a strikeout-to-walk ratio that is among the best in baseball — just 25 walks against 94 punchouts in 81.2 innings. He pitched at least five innings in every start this season and has fanned six or more in ten of thirteen outings. Cleveland gets plus money here because they're on the road, and the market respects Milwaukee's home field. None of that changes what this matchup actually is: one of the better starters in the game against one of the league's most hittable. Side with Cleveland tonight.