Cleveland at Miami

Cleveland has won three straight and looks to complete a series sweep in Miami this afternoon, and I want to be straight about that before anything else: Joey Cantillo has been nearly unhittable for five starts now, working to a 1.55 ERA over that stretch, and he's carried that form into July. But look at what's driving Cleveland's offense, or rather what isn't. The Guardians rank 29th in the majors in runs scored and carry a .228 team average, the kind of light-hitting profile that keeps even a great start from turning into a laugher. Tyler Phillips gets the ball for Miami on three days' rest after a 71-pitch outing, which means the Marlins bullpen, seventh-best in baseball by ERA, will carry a heavier load than usual in this getaway-day matinee. Miami's own recent form isn't bad either, and this park has been kind to the Marlins in day games. At even money against a club that struggles to score, I like the value on the home side to salvage the finale. Take Miami on the moneyline.