Cincinnati at Washington

Washington is a winning home team at 15-11 while the Reds are a team getting outscored on the road. While struggling vs. high-scoring teams, the Nats have gone 12-8 this season vs. NL teams that score under 4.8 runs per game. They are also 14-7 this season vs. RHP and 12-7 as a home dog. Bronson Arroyo has never performed well in June in his career (11-28) and he is just 6-17 in his last 23 when instilled as a small favorite of -100 to -125. I like the Nats here. I also like the UNDER. Neither of these teams score a lot and the two starters taking the mound are solid. In the 15 games in which these two teams have met over the past three seasons, the UNDER is 12-3. That includes a 7-1 mark for games here in Washington. Arroyo is 14-4 UNDER the past two seasons when facing a losing team and Washington is 18-3 UNDER at home when facing an NL team with a batting average of .275 or better over the past three seasons. Take the Nats and the UNDER here.