Cincinnati at Toronto

Toronto spotted Cincinnati with a 5-2 lead through three innings last night, then scored four in the seventh to win 6-5 while its bullpen threw six scoreless innings. That relief corps matters again this afternoon. Trey Yesavage makes his second start since returning from the injured list with knee inflammation, and he was held to two innings on Monday, so expect a short outing. He carries a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, and the Blue Jays bullpen behind him ranks seventh in baseball with a 3.60 ERA. Cincinnati's pen sits 25th at 4.71, and three of its relievers have pitched twice in the last three days. Rhett Lowder will decide this game. His season ERA is 6.01 with a 1.55 WHIP, and the last month has been worse: 21 earned runs across his last four starts, three of which ended before he finished the fifth. The Reds allow 5.12 runs per game, and their staff ERA ranks 28th. Toronto's offense is no prize at 27th in OPS, and the Blue Jays are 3-7 over their last ten. They don't need to be good against this pitching. They need to be competent for five innings, and Lowder has made that easy all month. Toronto is the right side this afternoon, and I don't expect Lowder to leave them needing another late rally.