Cincinnati at St. Louis

Cincinnati has plenty of offensive punch at #10 in baseball in runs scored, #11 in on-base percentage, and #13 in slugging. National League road teams that score 4.5 runs per game or more are 68-34 as an underdog in September contests. The Reds are on a 5-1 run against winning teams. The offense is hot, scoring 20 runs the last three games, including a 6-0 win yesterday as a +140 dog to St. Louis. Cincinnati also has a winning record the last 11 games, cashing six times as a dog. St. Louis is just 20-30 against teams that average 1.25 or more homers per contest, plus 9-16 after playing five straight home games, so grab the big dog with the hot offense and take Cincinnati.