Cincinnati at St. Louis

Rhett Lowder was as good as any young pitcher in baseball through the first eight weeks of the season, but the Reds right-hander has given back most of that early shine — he sits at a 5.40 ERA heading into this afternoon, a steep regression from the historic start that had Cincinnati buzzing in April. St. Louis sends Michael McGreevy, who has been the most reliable arm in that rotation all year: a 2.98 ERA built on elite command and a changeup that opponents have had no answer for this season. The Cardinals at 34-28 are the better club, asked to lay a modest price against a starter who is currently struggling to get through innings cleanly. Go with St. Louis this afternoon.