Cincinnati at St. Louis

Cincinnati is the worst team on paper here, a sub-.500 club facing a St. Louis team with a clearly better record, and Rhett Lowder's last time out was ugly, eight earned runs allowed in barely two innings against Colorado. But this specific matchup tells a different story. Lowder has faced the Cardinals twice in his career and delivered eight scoreless innings across those two starts, the more recent one a three-inning shutout stretch back on June 7 in a game the Reds still lost. Dustin May doesn't offer the Cardinals much cover either, coming off five runs allowed in five innings his last time out and sitting on a 4.78 ERA that's ordinary even by his own rotation's standards. We had St. Louis in a runline spot two nights ago in Los Angeles, and it cashed, and I like this Cardinals club fine on most nights, just not enough to lay a heavy price against a Reds pitcher who has quietly owned this exact opponent. This number clears at a flat 40%, well within reach for a matchup this lopsided in Lowder's favor. Take the Reds at plus money tonight.