Cincinnati at Pittsburgh

Paul Skenes' 2026 season looks completely different depending on where you look. The stat line reads 2.86 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, and 107 strikeouts — elite numbers that put him among the best starting pitchers in the National League. The win column reads 6-7, which is a product of Pittsburgh's lineup not showing up when he's on the mound, not anything Skenes has done wrong. Andrew Abbott gets the ball for Cincinnati with a 4.06 ERA and 1.44 WHIP, and that gap between these two starters is the foundation of the play tonight. Abbott allows baserunners at a rate that gives the Pittsburgh offense real opportunity to build multi-run leads, and this lineup has the firepower to take advantage. Ryan O'Hearn is hitting .290 with 11 home runs and 41 RBI. Oneil Cruz is a legitimate home run threat at the heart of this order. Against Skenes, Cincinnati faces a pitcher whose sweeper alone has generated just three hits across 214 pitches this season — opponents are batting .107 against it, and he is not giving the Reds the kind of traffic necessary to stay in games. Pittsburgh wins on the runline tonight.