Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Cincinnati has a sparkling home record, but a losing road mark. The Reds are 1-4 in Homer Bailey's last five road starts.  Bailey has a 2.16 ERA at home, but is 1-3 on the road with a 4.78 ERA where he has given up all four of his homers. Teams hit .282 off him away from home. The Reds are 1-4 in Bailey's last five road starts vs. the Phillies. He faces a Philadelphia team that is quietly getting better, on a 4-2 run. The Phillies are 9-4 in their last 13 games as an underdog and 7-2 as an underdog of +110 to +150. Starter Jonathan Pettibon (3-0, 3.41 ERA) has been strong, and the Reds are 19-39 in the last 58 meetings with Philadelphia. Plus, the Reds are 7-20 in the last 27 meetings in Philadelphia. Play the Phillies.