Cincinnati at Philadelphia

Cincinnati is a big dog but has a better record than the Phillies. The Reds' offense is 14th in on-base percentage and fourth in slugging. Nick Lodolo (3.60 ERA) gets the start after beating the Pirates, 6-2. Last year, Lodolo had a 3.66 ERA in 103 innings with a strong 131-39 strikeout-to-walk ratio holding batters to a .235 average. He also had a 2.92 ERA versus the Phillies. Meanwhile, Philadelphia has lost five of seven with an offense that is 27th in runs scored and 20th in on-base percentage, while the pitching staff is 28th in ERA (6.21). Lefty Bailey Falter makes his first home start and had a 5.49 ERA at home last season. The Phillies are 57-64 when the line is -100 to -150 with the wagering value on the visitors to win the game or lose by one run. Play Cincinnati.