Cincinnati at New York

The Yankees have been the most complete team in the American League all season, sitting at 45-28 with a run differential that ranks among the best in baseball. Rhett Lowder returned from missing the entire 2025 campaign and showed flashes of his 2024 debut form early — but that run has given way to a harder reality. Through ten starts this year, the 24-year-old right-hander owns a 4.60 ERA, a 1.43 WHIP, and has walked 25 batters while striking out just 37. Command is the problem, and Cam Schlittler is not the pitcher you want starting a command-shaky arm against. The 25-year-old right-hander is 7-3 with a 1.82 ERA and 0.91 WHIP, third-best in the American League, and has delivered quality starts in seven of his last eight outings — holding opponents to two earned runs or fewer in each of those seven. He carries a 96-strikeout pace and has walked just a handful. When a pitcher who can't locate his pitches faces a lineup this dangerous behind one of the most dominant arms in the league, the math does the work. New York wins on the runline tonight. Take the Yankees on the runline.