Cincinnati at New York

In game one of the double-header, we'll back the Reds on the +1.5 run line. Johan Santana goes for the Mets and he's been very good if not outstanding thus far with his new team. The Reds are off a 9-0 thumping of the Cubs - their second win in the last three games. We think they can keep this one within a run as the Mets' bats have not been impressive thus far. New York is batting just .233 and scoring 4.4 runs per game at home. They are just 5-9 against the run line and 7-14 against RHP. Road underdogs are 41-14 (75%) to the 1.5 run line when coming off a shutout win the past decade. Santana is just 3-14 against the run line in home games the past two seasons including an 0-7 mark when the total is 8 or 8.5.