Cincinnati at Milwaukee

Milwaukee owns the best record in the National League Central and a lineup putting up better than five runs a night, so the market making them a clear home favorite is no shock. Look at who's on the mound, though. The Brewers hand the ball to Brandon Sproat, who carries a 5.43 ERA and has walked 32 in under 70 innings, the kind of arm that can turn any night into a grind. With an erratic Sproat on the mound and the bullpens likely in the mix early, this projects far closer than the number suggests. The Reds also land in a live spot as a road underdog against a club that's been outscoring opponents by more than a run a game. The Reds don’t need to be the better team on paper, just live enough against a pitcher handing them this many openings, and at +150, they only have to win this two times out of five to pay. A Sproat start hands you that kind of opening. Back the Reds tonight.