Cincinnati at Milwaukee

We had the Reds two days ago against this same Milwaukee club, and it didn't go our way, the bullpen buckling in a 7-2 loss that dropped Cincinnati to its fourth straight loss. Milwaukee has taken the first three games of this series and looks for a sweep this afternoon, but the matchup finally tilts toward the Reds. Chase Burns takes the mound at 9-1 with a 2.36 ERA, easily the best arm either side has sent out all week. This is exactly the type of spot I like: a moderate road underdog, fresh off a loss, catching a club playing this well. At +178, the Reds only need to win a little better than a third of the time for this to pay. Burns gives Cincinnati a puncher's chance. Take the Reds today.