Cincinnati at Los Angeles

I had Los Angeles on the moneyline in this same matchup last night, and it held up in a tight 3-2 finish even as the total came up just short. Tonight sets up better for both bets. Rhett Lowder takes the ball for Cincinnati fresh off his worst start of the year, six earned runs in four innings against Milwaukee, and it fits a Reds staff that's carrying a bloated ERA over its last ten games while serving up home runs at an alarming clip. Yoshinobu Yamamoto counters for the Dodgers with a 2.67 ERA and a 12-8 record, but even he wasn't especially sharp his last time out, allowing four earned runs against St. Louis, so this isn't a pitcher's duel where the total needs a shootout to clear. Los Angeles has won six straight at home and brings the deeper, more dangerous lineup into a matchup against a Cincinnati staff that can't keep the ball in the yard. The Reds offense sits closer to the bottom of the league than the top, and that gap, paired with a shaky Lowder outing, points to Los Angeles pulling away rather than needing a nail-biter. Take Los Angeles on the moneyline and the OVER.