Cincinnati at Houston

The Cincinnati Reds surprised everyone last year, playing under the radar and making the playoffs. Big things were expected this season, but those expectations have taken a turn south with a 16-22 mark in their last 38 games. That stretch includes just three wins in their last 10 tries on the road. It has once again been a trying year for the Astros, but a bright light within the disappointment has been the pitching of Bud Norris. The Astros have won three of his last four starts on the season, and have a .500 record with him on the hill at home. They have also been money behind Norris as a home dog where they have cashed seven of their last eight. Arroyo sure hasn't done well pitching in a game after the Reds scored 5 or more runs, as he has pitched them to a dismal 0-8 mark. This is a good spot with a live dog, and Houston is my call.