Cincinnati at Chicago

I had Cincinnati on the run line here last night and it turned into one of the uglier results of the week, a 17-5 laugher that made the extra run and a half irrelevant. I'm not hiding from that. But my model treats a favorite that just hung 17 runs on a division rival as a fade the next time out, not a team to keep chasing, and that's exactly the spot the Cubs are standing in tonight. Chase Burns takes the mound for the Reds off a rough final line his last time out, but zoom out and he's been one of the better arms in the National League all season, sitting near the top of the league in ERA with swing-and-miss stuff that travels. Shota Imanaga goes for Chicago and got pulled after just two innings his last time out, hardly the form of a pitcher who should be laying a heavy price behind an offense coming off a blowout that history says tends to cool the next night. I'm buying back in against the same number that beat me last night, and I like this letdown spot far more than I liked last night's. Cincinnati and the extra run and a half is the strongest number on my board tonight.