Cincinnati at Chicago

I had the Reds getting the extra run against the Giants earlier this week, and that ticket cashed without a scare. Cincinnati brings a similar shape into Wrigley this afternoon: a losing club by record, but one that plays a lot closer than 63-71 suggests once the run line is in play. Andrew Abbott takes the ball for the Reds carrying a 4.15 ERA. He's not dominant, but he's worked past the fifth inning in three of his last five starts, holding Cincinnati in the game each time. Kevin Gausman gets the ball for Chicago, and this has been a rough summer for him too: a 4.58 ERA and a 6-11 record, with two of his last three starts failing to make it through five innings. The Cubs have also dropped two straight and haven't looked like the offense that carried them through the first half of the year. Getting that extra cushion with a pitcher this shaky on the mound for the favorite is the kind of number I want on a two-unit play. Cincinnati is the right side on the runline this afternoon.