Chicago at Tampa Bay

We were on Tampa Bay's moneyline Friday, and Chicago's bats made us pay for it, a four-homer barrage that turned what looked like a coin flip into a laugher. The Rays answered right back Saturday, a tight 1-0 win that squared the series and set up today's rubber match. Anthony Kay takes the ball for Chicago with a middling 4.25 ERA, but he's not walking into a punchless lineup: the White Sox are averaging 4.75 runs a game across the season, well ahead of Tampa Bay's 4.39, and they still sit atop the AL Central. Griffin Jax starts for Tampa Bay, and his 6-8 record undersells his arm; his 3.74 ERA points more to the offense in front of him than his own stuff. My mathematical model leans Chicago's way here too. A first-place club catching plus money off a series it has already split evenly is a number worth grabbing. Take Chicago on the moneyline this afternoon.